Denver enters as the clear favorite — ranked #2 nationally in overall efficiency vs. #48 for Lindenwood.
Denver's defense is elite — top-1 nationally, allowing just 2.09 goals per game.
Schedule context: Denver has faced tougher competition (SOS #16) than Lindenwood (SOS #56).
Lindenwood's record has been bolstered by good fortune — their underlying efficiency ranks #48 nationally.