MATCHUP SIMULATOR
Select two teams to simulate a head-to-head matchup
4–3
Projected
67%
33%
0.847
OER
0.599
1.126
OE
1.182
1.470
DE
1.031
0.992
GTR
0.646
0.479
SOS
0.513
-0.02
LUCK
+0.03
Analysis
Michigan St. (#3 OER) holds a meaningful edge overall, but Penn St. (#22) is a credible opponent.
Michigan St.'s defense is elite — top-2 nationally, allowing just 2.14 goals per game.
Penn St.'s potent offense (OE #9) runs into Michigan St.'s stingy defense (DE #2) — could be a low-scoring battle.
Schedule context: Penn St. has faced tougher competition (SOS #20) than Michigan St. (SOS #45).
N
Wisconsin
#14
3–4 (OT)
L
N
UConn
#13
2–1
W
vs
Ohio St.
#35
2–3 (OT)
L
@
Minnesota
#37
3–3 (SO)
T
@
Minnesota
#37
7–1
W
vs
Ohio St.
#35
3–3 (SO)
T
vs
Ohio St.
#35
1–5
L
vs
Notre Dame
#50
8–2
W
vs
Notre Dame
#50
4–2
W
vs
Michigan
#1
5–2
W
N
Minn. Duluth
#10
1–3
L
@
Michigan
#1
2–5
L
vs
Minnesota
#37
6–2
W
vs
Wisconsin
#14
2–5
L
vs
Wisconsin
#14
3–7
L
@
Notre Dame
#50
3–4 (OT)
L
@
Notre Dame
#50
3–3 (SO)
T
vs
Ohio St.
#35
5–4 (OT)
W
vs
Ohio St.
#35
11–4
W
@
Michigan
#1
3–6
L
Series History · Michigan St. 4–0–0 Penn St.
@
Jan 31, 2026
5–4 (OT)
W
@
Jan 30, 2026
6–3
W
vs
Nov 8, 2025
5–0
W
vs
Nov 7, 2025
2–1 (OT)
W