MATCHUP SIMULATOR
Select two teams to simulate a head-to-head matchup
2–5
Projected
15%
85%
0.466
OER
0.847
0.920
OE
1.126
1.011
DE
1.470
0.623
GTR
0.992
0.587
SOS
0.479
-0.12
LUCK
-0.02
Analysis
Michigan St. enters as the clear favorite — ranked #3 nationally in overall efficiency vs. #37 for Minnesota.
Offensively, Michigan St. has the upper hand (OE #15 vs. #45).
Michigan St.'s defense is elite — top-2 nationally, allowing just 2.14 goals per game.
Schedule context: Minnesota has faced tougher competition (SOS #2) than Michigan St. (SOS #45).
Minnesota (11-22-3) may be better than their record suggests — they've been unlucky relative to their #37 efficiency rating.
@
Penn St.
#22
2–6
L
vs
Michigan St.
#3
3–3 (SO)
T
vs
Michigan St.
#3
1–7
L
@
Michigan
#1
2–4
L
@
Michigan
#1
4–2
W
@
Notre Dame
#50
2–3
L
@
Notre Dame
#50
2–2 (SO)
T
vs
Ohio St.
#35
1–2
L
vs
Ohio St.
#35
2–6
L
vs
Wisconsin
#14
8–4
W
N
Wisconsin
#14
3–4 (OT)
L
N
UConn
#13
2–1
W
vs
Ohio St.
#35
2–3 (OT)
L
@
Minnesota
#37
3–3 (SO)
T
@
Minnesota
#37
7–1
W
vs
Ohio St.
#35
3–3 (SO)
T
vs
Ohio St.
#35
1–5
L
vs
Notre Dame
#50
8–2
W
vs
Notre Dame
#50
4–2
W
vs
Michigan
#1
5–2
W
Series History · Minnesota 0–3–1 Michigan St.
vs
Mar 6, 2026
3–3 (SO)
T
vs
Mar 5, 2026
1–7
L
@
Jan 24, 2026
2–3
L
@
Jan 23, 2026
1–3
L