MATCHUP SIMULATOR
Select two teams to simulate a head-to-head matchup
4–1
Projected
87%
13%
0.685
OER
0.117
0.895
OE
0.612
1.369
DE
0.753
0.933
GTR
0.218
0.440
SOS
0.531
+0.01
LUCK
-0.09
Analysis
Minnesota St. enters as the clear favorite — ranked #12 nationally in overall efficiency vs. #61 for Northern Mich..
Minnesota St.'s defense is elite — top-4 nationally, allowing just 2.02 goals per game.
Schedule context: Northern Mich. has faced tougher competition (SOS #11) than Minnesota St. (SOS #59).
Northern Mich. (3-29-2) may be better than their record suggests — they've been unlucky relative to their #61 efficiency rating.
N
Western Mich.
#7
1–3
L
vs
St. Thomas (MN)
#20
4–1
W
vs
Michigan Tech
#28
7–2
W
vs
Ferris St.
#55
2–0
W
vs
Ferris St.
#55
1–2 (OT)
L
vs
Ferris St.
#55
5–1
W
vs
Northern Mich.
#61
3–0
W
vs
Northern Mich.
#61
2–2 (SO)
T
@
Bowling Green
#24
1–1 (SO)
T
@
Bowling Green
#24
5–4
W
@
Minnesota St.
#12
0–3
L
@
Minnesota St.
#12
2–2 (SO)
T
vs
Lake Superior St.
#54
2–5
L
vs
Lake Superior St.
#54
5–7
L
@
Ferris St.
#55
0–6
L
@
Ferris St.
#55
4–4 (SO)
T
vs
Bemidji St.
#34
1–7
L
vs
Bemidji St.
#34
2–0
W
@
Michigan Tech
#28
3–2
W
vs
Michigan Tech
#28
2–8
L
Series History · Minnesota St. 3–0–1 Northern Mich.
vs
Feb 28, 2026
3–0
W
vs
Feb 27, 2026
2–2 (SO)
T
@
Nov 29, 2025
3–2
W
@
Nov 28, 2025
4–0
W