MATCHUP SIMULATOR
Select two teams to simulate a head-to-head matchup
3–2
Projected
54%
46%
0.685
OER
0.603
0.895
OE
1.249
1.369
DE
0.995
0.933
GTR
0.604
0.440
SOS
0.509
+0.01
LUCK
+0.05
Analysis
Minnesota St. (#12 OER) holds a meaningful edge overall, but St. Thomas (MN) (#20) is a credible opponent.
St. Thomas (MN) brings a top-3 offense nationally (3.45 goals/game), which will challenge any defense.
Minnesota St.'s defense is elite — top-4 nationally, allowing just 2.02 goals per game.
St. Thomas (MN)'s potent offense (OE #3) runs into Minnesota St.'s stingy defense (DE #4) — could be a low-scoring battle.
Schedule context: St. Thomas (MN) has faced tougher competition (SOS #23) than Minnesota St. (SOS #59).
N
Western Mich.
#7
1–3
L
vs
St. Thomas (MN)
#20
4–1
W
vs
Michigan Tech
#28
7–2
W
vs
Ferris St.
#55
2–0
W
vs
Ferris St.
#55
1–2 (OT)
L
vs
Ferris St.
#55
5–1
W
vs
Northern Mich.
#61
3–0
W
vs
Northern Mich.
#61
2–2 (SO)
T
@
Bowling Green
#24
1–1 (SO)
T
@
Bowling Green
#24
5–4
W
@
Minnesota St.
#12
1–4
L
vs
Augustana (SD)
#11
2–1
W
vs
Lake Superior St.
#54
5–2
W
vs
Lake Superior St.
#54
4–3 (OT)
W
@
Bemidji St.
#34
2–2 (SO)
T
@
Bemidji St.
#34
1–3
L
vs
Augustana (SD)
#11
0–4
L
vs
Augustana (SD)
#11
3–3 (SO)
T
@
Bowling Green
#24
1–3
L
@
Bowling Green
#24
3–2 (OT)
W
Series History · Minnesota St. 2–2–0 St. Thomas (MN)
vs
Mar 20, 2026
4–1
W
vs
Jan 10, 2026
2–4
L
vs
Nov 1, 2025
3–4 (OT)
L
@
Oct 31, 2025
3–1
W